Flattening Yield Curve In One Picture

 

The flattening yield curve is a topic of much discussion. The lead chart shows various spreads it in one picture.

Spread Values

Spread Values in Basis Points

• 10-7 Spread: 04 Basis Points
• 10-5 Spread: 10 Basis Points
• 10-2 Spread: 21 Basis Points
• 05-2 Spread: 11 Basis Points

This cannot possibly mean what is used to mean (i.e. the Fed is tightening into a recession).

How do I know?

In his speech today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not mention "yield curve even once". Instead he talked about "moving stars".

For discussion, please see Powell Praises the Fed, Discusses the Stars (Literally), Defends Goldilocks.