Fitbit Fatigue

So we took some time to put something special together on Fitbit (NYSE:FIT) and while there's lots of good news in the short-term the longer term doesn't look nearly so good. Our full written research note is available here: Fitbit is running like a champ but will still hit the wall.

As usual we've also captured the Fitbit IPO Roadshow Slides and also produced a full Fitbit IPO Roadshow Transcription for your reading pleasure.

This is already an outstanding IPO which has increased in size and price into what we expect will still be an above-the-range pricing and a doubling kind of open tomorrow.

So why the negative view? It's not really negative - we like Fitbit. In fact the new Charge and Charge HR are finally (finally!) the right products after years of fairly lousy offerings (I've had them all and can tell you....)

But this big surge is part pent-up demand and it will be met with a juggernaut called the Apple Watch. That and Apple HealthKit will be their demise. Not original perhaps but our note above goes through more of the thinking and scenarios.

Would we be short? Not yet but it's one to watch. Our IV is $65 using fairly rosy projections. As the lockup expiration nears there could be a chance to exploit that. More interesting will be if they show a softening of demand. Survey data certainly points to it in the coming quarters.

Here's to a healthy body, mind and portfolio!