First Look at September: ADP Says 568K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

This morning we have the ADP September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over the ADP revised August figure of 340K.

The 568K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 428K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 450K private nonfarm jobs gained and the unemployment rate to drop to 5.1%. Their forecast for the September new full nonfarm jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 476K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.