The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
Today we have the ADP May estimate of 2.76M nonfarm private employment jobs lost, an increase over the ADP revised April figure of -19.6M.
The -2.76M estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of -9M for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for -7.5M private nonfarm jobs lost and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.8%. Their forecast for the May full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) -8M.
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:
“The impact of the COVID-19 crisis continues to weigh on businesses of all sizes,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, cohead of the ADP Research Institute. “While the labor market is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, job loss likely peaked in April, as many states have begun a phased reopening of businesses.”
Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
The next update to this report will be on July 1.
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