First Look at June: ADP Says 102K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP June estimate of 102K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase over the ADP revised May figure of 41K.

The 102K estimate came in below the Investing.com consensus of 140K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 153K new nonfarm private jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.6%. Their forecast for the June full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 160K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“Job growth started to show signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “While large businesses continue to do well, small businesses are struggling as they compete with the ongoing tight labor market. The goods producing sector continues to show weakness. Among services, leisure and hospitality’s weakness could be a reflection of consumer confidence.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market continues to throttle back. Job growth has slowed sharply in recent months, as businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring. Small businesses are the most nervous, especially in the construction sector and at bricks-and-mortar retailers.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.