First Look at July: ADP Says 219K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP July estimate of 219K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase over the ADP June figure of 213K.

The 219K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 186K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 189K nonfarm private new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.9%. Their forecast for the July full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) is 193K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“The labor market is on a roll with no signs of a slowdown in sight,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Nearly every industry posted strong gains and small business hiring picked up.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is booming, impacted by the deficit-financed tax cuts and increases in government spending. Tariffs have yet to materially impact jobs, but the multinational companies shed jobs last month, signaling the threat.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.