First Look at July: ADP Says 156K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP July estimate of 156K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase over the ADP revised June figure of 112K.

The 156K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 150K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 160K new nonfarm private jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%. Their forecast for the June full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 164K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is healthy, but steadily slowing. Small businesses are suffering the brunt of the slowdown. Hampering job growth are labor shortages, layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers, and fallout from weaker global trade.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

 

The next update to this report will be on September 5.