First Look at August: ADP Says 195K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP August estimate of 195K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase over the ADP revised July figure of 142K.

The 195K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 148K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 150K new nonfarm private jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%. Their forecast for the August full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 160K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“In August we saw a rebound in private-sector employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and cohead of the ADP Research Institute.

“This is the first time in the last 12 months that we have seen balanced job growth across small, medium and large-sized companies.” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses are holding firm on their payrolls despite the slowing economy. Hiring has moderated, but layoffs remain low. As long as this continues recession will remain at bay.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.