Federal Revenues Crumbling, Spending Exploding Is The Deficit Math Crisis Here Now

The government’s own data tells the story. I’m not talking about the fake BLS data that not only misleads, but lies about the danger. No, I’m talking about the actual hard numbers that aren’t massaged and manipulated like the Non-farm payrolls crap that the BLS foists on us every month. That’s garbage, but its the one story that everybody watches as if its the holy grail.

Meanwhile, I have been tracking and reporting the real-time Federal tax data, especially withholding tax collections, for 2 decades. It is the most accurate employment signal available, untouched by seasonal adjustment or statistical manipulation. It’s just the real money that the US Treasury collects and reports every single day.

That data just hit a new annual low last week, while today the BLS reported 115,000 jobs added in April. The tax data has shown the real story for months, and it’s definitely not what the BLS has been BSing us.

Meanwhile the April Federal spending numbers just exploded like a US bunker buster hitting a mountain hiding an Iranian nuclear facility. April outlays surged $142 billion year-over-year. $142 billion! That’s insane. Da Fence Department says it spent $25 billion on the war, but as Iran the tax data, I was shocked to see a bulge of $142 billion. If the war only accounted for $25 billion, I got a ballroom to sell you on Trump’s east wingnut.

At the pace of the deficit over the past 3 months, the official CBO deficit forecast of $1.7 trillion is a joke. $2.8 trillion is more like it. That’s not possible.

No really, it’s not possible. They can try but they can’t pay. It will have to come out of the Warsh.

And that’s not even the whole story. What about the collapse of corporate tax collections? What about tariff revenue going bye bye?

No sir, lady! You ain’t seen nothin yet. They may be working on the budget, but they haven’t even started crunching the numbers. Success? Not on your life.

With apologies to Jay Renshaw’s Chit (see Youtube)

The Liquidity Trader Macroliquidity™ Federal Budget Update breaks down the Daily Treasury Statement real data, shows why the BLS headline is fiction, and where the deficit is actually heading. Updated monthly, along with other financial narrative brain salves, at your local Liquidity Trader outlet.