The US Dollar traded broadly higher against its major counterparts in overnight trade as prices corrected after dropping to a two-week low in yesterday’s session. That move followed comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that traders (rightly or wrongly) perceived as diminishing the scope for interest rate hikes in 2016. The Japanese Yen diverged from its G10 FX counterparts, managing to narrowly gain against the greenback. The currency’s resilience may reflect a steep skew in overnight borrowing costs ahead of Japan’s fiscal year end.
The preliminary set of March Eurozone CPI figures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge higher to 0.9 percent. If the analogous German figures released yesterday prove telling, an upside surprise could be in store. Such a result seems unlikely to meaningfully buoy the Euro however considering it will hardly discourage the ECB from pursuing the aggressive stimulus effort that policy makers unveiled earlier this month.
The spotlight turns back to Fed-speak later in the day as comments from Chicago and New Fed Presidents Charles Evans and Bill Dudley cross the wires. The tone ought to be familiar, with both officials citing domestic progress toward the central bank’s objectives but warning against potentially disruptive external developments. If this is part of a coordinated communication effort aimed at realigning official and market-based policy bets (as we suspect), the pair may likewise push back a bit against the decidedly dovish interpretations of Yellen’s remarks.
Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:01 |
Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR) |
43 |
- |
28 |
|
|
23:05 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR) |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
|
00:00 |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) |
-5.3% |
- |
0.6% |
|
|
00:00 |
ANZ Activity Outlook (MAR) |
29.4 |
- |
25.5 |
|
|
00:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence (MAR) |
3.2 |
- |
7.1 |
|
00:30 |
AUD |
Job Vacancies (FEB) |
2.7% |
- |
4.0% |
|
00:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (FEB) |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
00:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (FEB) |
6.6% |
6.5% |
6.5% |
|
02:00 |
NZD |
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB) |
7.3% |
- |
7.6% |
|
05:00 |
Housing Starts (YoY) (FEB) |
7.8% |
-2.4% |
0.2% |
|
|
05:00 |
JPY |
Annualized Housing Starts (FEB) |
0.974m |
0.880m |
0.873m |
|
05:00 |
JPY |
Construction Orders (YoY) (FEB) |
-12.4% |
- |
-13.8% |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
06:00 |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
Low |
|
|
06:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) |
2.2% |
-0.8% |
Low |
|
07:00 |
GBP |
BOE’s Carney Speaks at FSB Briefing |
- |
- |
Medium |
|
07:00 |
EUR |
IMF's Lagarde, PBOC's Zhou Speak in Paris |
- |
- |
Medium |
|
07:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change (000's) (MAR) |
-6k |
-10k |
Medium |
|
07:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (MAR) |
6.2% |
6.2% |
Medium |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Net Consumer Credit (FEB) |
1.3b |
1.6b |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB) |
3.6b |
3.7b |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Mortgage Approvals (FEB) |
73.5k |
74.6k |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB) |
- |
0.0% |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB) |
- |
0.8% |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB) |
4.0% |
4.3% |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (4Q F) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Medium |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (4Q F) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
Medium |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Current Account Balance (4Q) |
-21.2b |
-17.5b |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Index of Services (MoM) (JAN) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Index of Services (3M/3M) (JAN) |
0.8% |
0.7% |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F) |
- |
-2.1% |
Low |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F) |
- |
2.4% |
Low |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAR) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
High |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (MAR A) |
0.9% |
0.8% |
High |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.1167 |
1.1248 |
1.1293 |
1.1329 |
1.1374 |
1.1410 |
1.1491 |
|
|
1.4204 |
1.4302 |
1.4340 |
1.4400 |
1.4438 |
1.4498 |
1.4596 |
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