Fed Press Conference Key Point, 3 Times Powell Said “We Just Don’t Know”

“And no one else does either,” said Powell. Ponder what that implies.

The Fed does not know how tariffs will play out, how oil shocks will play out, or how AI will play out.

Powell On the Summary of Economic Expectations (SEP)

“We just don’t know. If ever there was a good time to not do SEPs this would be the one.”

“We don’t know what the effects of this will be, and no one does.”

“Take the forecast with a grain of salt due to high levels of uncertainty.”

Net of oil imapct is some downward pressure on spending.

Powell did blame tariffs for inflation, stating “consumers pay tariffs.”

AI Uncertainty

On AI, Powell stated the long term benefit rates to be increased productivity, but the timing is uncertain.

He added AI puts short-term inflation pressures on data centers and components.

“We just don’t know.”

Diesel and Gasoline Price Uncertainty

Powell punted two questions on diesel and gasoline prices. “We don’t know how big this will be or how long it will last,” Powell responded to the one question.

To a second reporter, Powell responded that he would not comment because “That might sound like I have some idea what will happen.”

On Jobs

Powell noted the downside risks but brushed off stagflation, a term he said applies to the 70s and 80s, not now.

He noted “zero net job creation” but stated “that’s what the economy may need.”

Powell added the job setup is a “consequence of deliberate immigration policy,” while having some concerns over the no job growth setup.

Press Conference Video

Powell Makes the Case

Q: What case is that?
A: There should not be a Fed.

The Fed doesn’t know where rates should be, and nobody else does either.

Only the free market can respond accurately to the incoming data.

But the one thing worse than an “independent” Fed is a Fed beholden to nothing but the demands of politicians. And that is what Trump wants.

I will comment on the SEP shortly.

Powell “No Intention of Leaving the Fed”

Powell issue a statement “I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.”

The case will be closed in Powell’s favor.

Powell would not respond to questions about what he does once the investigation is closed.

He is confirmed to a separate term as a Fed governor until 2028. “I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” said Powell.

“Frivolous” Subpoenas of the Fed Chair

Please note Judge Chastises Trump’s DOJ Over “Frivolous” Subpoenas of the Fed Chair

Republican Senator Thom Tillis praises the ruling.

Tillis has stated he will hold all Trump appointments until Trump drops the case against Powell.

That includes Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

It would be idiotic for many reasons to appeal the ruling but guess what.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro Will Appeal.

We All Know How This Will End

“We all know how this is going to end and the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office should save itself further embarrassment and move on,” said Tillis.

Tillis forgot to add, “except the legal morons at the DOJ who were stupid to file these frivolous subpoenas in the first case.”