Fed Funds Expected Trajectory, And Other Rates

Here’s the CME’s Fedwatch implied path for the Fed funds rate as of noon CT today:

Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold blue), 3 month Treasury yield (red), 10 year (green), 30 year (black), all constant maturity yields, in %. Dashed green line at US-Iran war start. Source: Treasury, Federal Reserve. 

Here’s a detail:

Figure 2: Effective Fed funds (bold blue), 3 month Treasury yield (red), 10 year (green), 30 year (black), all constant maturity yields, in %. Dashed green line at US-Iran war start. Source: Treasury, Federal Reserve. 

Modal prediction is for another 25 bps Fed funds increase by year’s end.

It doesn’t look like a 25 bps increase quieted inflation expectations completely, although the 5 year IC breakeven dropped 5 bps.