Fed Eyes Long Pause, No Rate Hikes In 2020

The Fed held rates steady today citing low inflation. Members expect a long pause.

The Fed held rates steady and issued this FOMC Statement.

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective.

Dot Plot Synopsis

The Dot Plot is from Economic Projections.

• Thirteen participants expect no hikes in 2020.
• Four foresee a single hike.

Statement Little Changed

The above from the Wall Street Journal Statement Tracker.

Dot Plot Amusement

Two years ago, I posted this dot plot, with these comments.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Today's dot plot is not as silly.

However, I strongly suggest the next move is another set of cuts, not hikes.

Note that not a single participant expect a cut.

Once again, fade that consensus.