Fed Does Nothing As Expected. Brexit On Deck

The market, for the most part, has been trading down lately due to the uncertainty the Euro zone is facing once next Thursday comes and goes. That's when we find out if Britain stays or goes out of the Euro zone. Fear of them leaving has the market mostly on the down side with the banks the most vulnerable and overall taking the hardest hits lower. They rebounded from very oversold today but they have the most risk ahead of and after the vote. If the vote is to stay they should have quite a rebound higher, but again, the unknown is having a very short-term adverse-affect for them, and, thus, the market overall. The banks are also vulnerable because, as we saw today, Fed Yellen is once again in no rush to raise rates, even though they badly need to do so. If rates stay down, and Brexit is a negative, the banks are in big trouble. Yellen is totally dependent on future Jobs Reports, with regards to deciding when to raise rates one more time for 2016. 

If the reports come in poorly, such as they did last month, there's a reasonable chance we won't see another rate hike until sometime in 2017, after promising four hikes for 2016 just a few months back. Yes, even the fed got blindsided by the lack of economic activity. Her hopes dashed. She really wants to raise rates a little bit, but things have suddenly gone south and now she's stuck between the rock and hard place. No one wants to be stuck there. Oh well. Such is life when you've messed up for longer than expected. She thought she'd have an out, but now the economy has turned against her and she has no idea how to respond to it. Fear on both sides. So now we're sadly back to month to month data on the jobs. Lots more unknown to deal with, therefore, lots more market to nowhere to come. Maybe Brexit will be the catalyst for that elusive breakout over S&P 500 2134. Maybe it'll be the catalyst the bears are begging for these days. No one knows until the vote comes in. More patience needed. You should have enough experience in that exercise by now I'd hope.

The market is getting on everyone's last nerve. Most folks can deal with a market that goes lateral for a reasonable amount of time, but when it becomes nearly two years with head fakes on both sides, it's really almost too much to deal with emotionally. I know I personally wish the market would make a move. I don't care which way it goes, but just make a move. I have tremendous patience so I can only imagine how the average trader feels. Ready to give it up, I would think. The level of agnostic traders is rising, and that makes sense.

With neither side unable to get anything done, more and more folks are taking the approach of show me. More and more folks are staying away from guessing the next big move. Since nothing ever really happens their stance is now to sit more on the sidelines and wait for confirmation. Just too hard to try and front run the next big move, and for all we know, it could take quite a long time from here. We certainly hope not, but there's no way to know, so why not take a “show me” approach. There's no extremes of bullishness nor bearishness. Market has another eight days before getting the Brexit news.

One thing I think is worth talking about a bit is it seems to me that Fed Yellen is losing credibility. Her inability to read the economy, and to know what to do with rates after promising four of them for 2016 is making folks question her knowledge about our economy, and what is the right thing to do regarding the health of the United States economy. Losing credibility can't be good for our market. We need to be very careful here.