February 2018: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Improves Again

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

This index is indicating modest growth six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 152.2 from 151.6, while WLI growth rose to 8.8%. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:

- read ECRI's "Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown"

- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)"

- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown"

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interview

For a closer look at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below:

(Click on image to enlarge)

 

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The December index value (issued in January) shows the rate of economic growth was little changed.

(Click on image to enlarge)

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

(Click on image to enlarge)

z ecri_lag.PNG