Summary
- There's a hypothetical top on the 17th, tomorrow, not today. Nonetheless, PAM is taking profit. And if there's further upmove in equities, we will just reset longs after a pullback,.
- That of course takes more work, but Mr. TK wants to keep those profits we have now, if possible. So we likewise exit the equity and bond ETF longs later.
- NatGas longs --- we are finally getting higher highs -- and this cold snap may not last very long. We will look for exit levels for long Natty later today.
- The US Treasury announced today that it would pay down $55 billion in outstanding T-bills. The funds will settle a week from today, on February 23. The cash payment goes directly into the accounts of Primary Dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest the cash, if wanted.
- It is not difficult to guess at the intention of the Treasury. The are somewhat averse to a rapid rise in rates, and want to prevent panic selling of long term govt securities. This is a signaling device, and you can be sure the Primary Dealers will be "encouraged" to use that money to buy long term securities. That PDs are buying is the strongest signal you can have to bond investors. Whatever you do, do not be SHORT the long bond futures by Monday.
FEBRUARY 16, 2021
GOOD MORNING EUROPE / GOOD EVENING WEST COAST
RM13Feb 16, 2021 4:02 AM
Bitcoin is near ATH, is it still an indicator of overall liquidity, or does it reflect another variable - like loss of faith in fiat system?
vons52Feb 16, 2021 6:31 AM
Also, LABU... This has been one of the hottest ETFs past 3 and 1/3 months. I placed sell orders in a ridiculously high prices to take profits... often times, the orders were filled. I was pumped up with first few orders filled, then later I realized that extremely strong LABU last few months might be an indicator of strong liquidity.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:22 AM
It looks like the 10yr yield is 1.30% bound.
And USH1 may fall to 163-1/2.So this may be the dominant EWP schemata i the equities -- that of the ES.
If the ES is going to follow the yield timeline, we may see a different trajectory for ES,
That puts a hypothetical top on the 17th, tomorrow, not today.
Nonetheless, PAM is taking profit, And it there is further upmove in equities, we will just reset longs in a pullback, if we get it.
That of course takes more work, But Mr. TK wants to keep those profits we have right now, if possible.
So we will likewise exit the equity ETF longs and TN short positions, including the long TMVs, hopefully later in the day.
A risk on wave should push the DXY lower, and we might just get into buy situation again.
That should provide some relief for gold, which has disappointed so far.
We will reset the long gold hedge higher if we see the XAU 1850 levels again.
What to do with the NatGas longs --- we are finally getting higher highs -- and this cold snap may not last very long. We will look for exit levels for long Natty later today.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 2:49 PM
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 2:56 PM
PAM BUYS 288 CONTRACTS DXH1 AT 90.15, GTC
*This order was filled.*
*DXH1 -- DONE AT 90.15 BOUGHT 288 CONTRACTS DXH1 FOR ALL FUNDS, INCL TRACKER AND EIGER*
*Mr. TK says he is wary of this NatGas situation even with another storm arriving soon. We have had this burden for a while, and he is glad to be rid of it.*
I asked DCC boys to offload PAM long NGs and put it in the Joint Acct, unwind it later. I also just have a bad feeling about Natty that does not go away.
all PAM SELLS 332 CONTRACTS NGH21 FOR ALL FUNDS -- DCC DISCRETION
*NGH21 -- DONE AT 3.087 SOLD 332 CONTRACTS NGH21 FOR ALL FUNDS.*
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 3:21 PM
PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS YMH1 AT BREACH OF 31,500, OR AT 31,740 LIMIT OR BETTER
*This order was filled.*
*YMH1 -- DONE AT 31,498 SOLD 432 CONTRACT FOR ALL FUNDS INCL TRACKER AND EIGER*
vjapnFeb 16, 2021 4:43 PM
Robert, With rates soaring, the DOW and RTY should be flying. Do you read anything into the fact they are struggling or just randomness of market?
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 4:58 PM
Very strange, V -- I think this underperformance will change. Lets see,
all PAM RESETS THE EXITED YM LONGS BY BUYING 432 CONTRACT NQH1 AT BREACH OF 13,910, GTC -- FOR ALL FUNDS INCL TRACKER AND EIGER
User.49362576Feb 16, 2021 5:12 PM
GE, Robert. Are we keeping NQH sell order (all PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS NQH1 AT BREACH OF 13,800, OR AT 13,950 LIMIT OR BETTER -- FOR ALL FUNDS INCL TRACKER AND EIGER)? Thanks.
robert.p.balanFeb 16, 2021 5:13 PM
Yes 4936 -- just in case NQ falls out of bed too.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 5:29 PM
How high, and for how long can we expect this rise in the 10yr to persist?
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 5:30 PM
10yr yield rarely stays very long above its regression line, unless the Fed is hiking the FFR . . . . . . and the Fed never hikes rates during a recession.
Alan.LongbonFeb 16, 2021 5:39 PM
They must have over shot on bank reserve drainage and created a shortage and the banks are bidding them up.
ippy04Feb 16, 2021 7:16 PM
ippy04Feb 16, 2021 7:16 P
Regression in 10 YR yield rise from recent low and also from 0.50 low in August... move up is overdone
TimK123Feb 16, 2021 11:08 PM
Maybe an extended W5 on yields (T. notes). Spotted the potential for a diagonal a few weeks ago.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 5:47 PM
PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS NQH1 AT BREACH OF 13,800, OR AT 13,950 LIMIT OR BETTER
*This order was filled.*
*NQH1 -- DONE AT 13,797.75 SOLD 432 CONTRACTS NQH1 FOR ALL FUNDS. INCL TRACKER AND EIGER*
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 6:04 PM
It looks like the YM EWP schemata won out.
If that is the case then, we may see 31,300 - 31,260 in YMH1 before a firmer support appears.
It's time to look ahead for an exit of the short TN futures.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 6:11 PM
*It's time to look ahead for an exit of the short TN futures.*
all PAM BUYS BACK 144 CONTRACTS OF TNH1 AT 151-04 LIMIT OR BETTER, FOR ALL FUNDS, INCL TRACKER AND EIGER
Albert.FoodFeb 16, 2021 6:19 PM
You meant limit at *151-04*,correct?
robert.p.balanFeb 16, 2021 6:31 PM
Yes, Mr. Food.
findependenceFeb 16, 2021 8:01 PM
robert.p.balan Will this be the time to go long TN after this sell?. Thank you!.
robert.p.balanFeb 16, 2021 8:58 PM
We just take profit and see if yields respond to the models thereafter. We protect the gains, and then we see if we have a reason to reverse the trade.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 9:42 PM
The US Treasury announced today that it would pay down $55 billion in outstanding T-bills. The funds will settle a week from today, on February 23. (H/T to bogeygolf ) --
The cash payment goes directly into the accounts of Primary Dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest the cash, if wanted. It is not difficult to guess at the intention of the Treasury. The are somewhat averse to a rapid rise in rates, and want to prevent panic selling of long term govt securities.
This is a signaling device, and you can be sure the Primary Dealers will be "encouraged" to use that money to buy long term securities. That PDs are buying is the strongest signal you can have to bond investors. Whatever you do, do not be SHORT the long bond futures by Monday.
QuaziFeb 16, 2021 10:28 PM
Looks like Mr TK was right on this morning. The US10Y is rising fast and equities are turning over. Your advice on equities would be appreciated, should we follow Mr TK out of the market now? This doesn't look like a case of equities following yields as much as maybe the beginning of a correction. Thanx much Mr robert.p.balan
john.derFeb 16, 2021 10:29 PM
Any forward looking plans for PAM to be trading oil and copper as this develops? Agriculture?
robert.p.balanFeb 16, 2021 11:14 PM
Oil and copper we will be trading again. Agri -- too much like NatGas -- highly seasonal and the Big Boys have all the cards. We will think about Agri.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:31 PM
Quazi
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:33 PM
PAM sold almost a thousand contracts late today. What does that tell you? OK maybe nothing. But certainly Mr. TK was happy today. That was a quick $729,180 windfall without much angst.
QuaziFeb 16, 2021 10:35 PM
I am asking about tomorrow ...
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:38 PM
We are out of the short TN futures
PAM BUYS BACK 144 CONTRACTS OF TNH1 AT 151-04 LIMIT OR BETTER,
*This order was filled. *
*TNH1 -- DONE AT 151-04 BOUGHT BACK 144 TNH1 SHORT CONTRACTS -- FOR ALL FUNDS INCL TRACKER AND EIGER*
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:45 PM
If the yield juggernaut pauses not far from current 1.3197 levels, equity futures should try the upside once again. Maybe we will see a yield top tomorrow, but equities could still rise further for another two days thereafter.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:47 PM
We are still keeping longs.
But it was necessary to take profit from the scalpers because that is what we do -- take profits when there is a threat to the trade -- and reset it once we get lower levels. I just hope it will still work, and we are not overstaying the long side.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 10:53 PM
Just look a that yield go!
QuaziFeb 16, 2021 11:06 PM
Thank you for sharing sir! Just to make sure that I understand now, PAM sold 432 NQH and 432 RTY Bull futures contracts today and bought 432 NQH and 432 RTY Bear Futures contacts today? And PAM is carrying 144 NQH and 300 RTY Bull contracts from prior dates, as well? And, PAM is uncertain ... but, is Bearish for tomorrow.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerFeb 16, 2021 11:07 PM
Just taking profits from previous long scalpers, Mr. Q.
I will see you in Asian trade. GN everyone.
behavior correctly, that turn should come very soon.
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Here is the current status of the PAM flagship Swing Fund, which includes open and closed trades.
During the twelve months of 2020, PAM delivered phenomenal real-dollar Hedge Fund trading performance, the best at Seeking Alpha:
PAM's flagship Swing Portfolio, year-to-date (December 31, 2020) delivered $100, 181,522.77 net profit on $11,172,813 margin capital.
Year-to-date performance: 860.27%, on 888-98 win-loss trades.
January 2021 spreadsheet here:
Year to date 2020 spreadsheet here.
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