Even Before the Recession, Employment Was Slowing

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data show the divergence from the establishment survey measurement of total employment in the months before the peak.

Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (red), from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (blue), both calculated as 12-month log differences. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

NBER identified peak is 2020M02.