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- According to the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, the US added only 194 thousand jobs in September.
- Sentiment shifted from negative to positive, hitting the currency as markets rallied.
- The EUR/USD is consolidating losses at its 2021 bottom and the pair has room to fall further.
The EUR/USD weekly forecast is bearish as the US dollar continues to grind higher across the board while worrisome figures remain a concern. On Friday, Oct. 8, the EUR/USD pair did manage to regain its previous losses due to less-than-expected US jobs data. However, this pullback appears to be short-term, and bears may continue their course.
EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast
As the globe continues to combat the pandemic, the EUR/USD pair dropped to a new 2021 low of 1.1528. Because the recovery is unbalanced throughout the world, resuming economic activity will experience significant obstacles and supply chain interruptions.
The Case of the US Dollar and the Shared Currency
The US currency profited because of its safe-haven status, gaining strength due to relief stories and anticipation of imminent tapering. On the other hand, dismal statistics weighed on the shared currency, showing a slowdown of growth in the year’s final quarter.
Worrisome Figures
The week was jam-packed with data, culminating on Friday with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report release. Unfortunately, it was a big letdown, as the country only gained 194 thousand new employment in September, far less than the 500 thousand forecast.
Following the announcement, the greenback came under selling pressure, but the euro could not profit from the dollar’s wide weakening. The German statistics were the most disappointing, as the majority of them fell short of market forecasts. Factory orders were down 7.7% month-over-month in August, while industrial production was down 4%.
Key Data Releases from the Eurozone During the Week of Oct. 11-15
The ZEW Survey for October will be released in Germany this week.
Key Data Releases in the US During the Week of Oct. 11-15
The big event to look at will be September Retail Sales in the United States, which are expected to be down 0.2% for the month. Also, investors will look for Core Inflation figures.
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Key SMAs Pointing at Further Losses
The EUR/USD pair has been trading below 1.1600, and the weekly chart indicates that the pair has been losing for the sixth week in a row. The pair has been trading a few pips below the 100-MA and battling with the 200-MA. Meanwhile, the 20-MA has had a negative slope that extends considerably above the present level.
At the same time, the MACD indicator has been in negative territory, consolidating losses at the September lows.
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