Bearish outlook
Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1150.
Add a stop-loss at 1.1325.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1325.
Add a stop-loss at 1.1150.
EUR/USD pair wavered as investors reacted to the ongoing protests in France and the rising energy prices. It was trading at 1.1220, a few points above this month’s low of 1.1112. It remains about 7.15% below the highest point this year.
Rising Crude Oil Prices Amid French Protests
The EUR/USD pair wavered as energy prices continued rising. Brent, the global benchmark, is nearing the important milestone of $110, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $99. This rebound happened as Iran continued attacking ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
There are also concerns that the US will launch an attack against key Iranian targets. Some media reports suggest that Trump is considering hitting Kharg Island, where Iran handles 90% of its oil exports. Trump is also considering using the mother of all bombs against key Iranian targets.
Rising oil prices means that European and US gas prices will continue soaring. AAA data shows that the average gasoline price rose to $4.29, while diesel prices jumped to a record high of $6.3. The same trend is happening in other European countries.
The EUR/USD pair is also reacting to ongoing student protests in France, where students are protesting cuts to education spending and gas prices. As a result, several French cities have announced further curfews, a move that will affect economic growth. Investors are now worried about another European debt crisis.
There will be no major macro data from Europe and the United States. The only data to watch today will be the upcoming US housing starts and building permits. Housing starts are expected to come in at 1.3 million from the previous 1.27 million as building permits eased to 1.39 million.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has remained under pressure in the past few days. It was trading at 1.1228, inside a range where it has been in the past few days.
The pair has dropped below the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages and the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines. It remains below the Supertrend indicator.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range in the coming days as investors wait for next week’s Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) decisions. Economists expect the two banks to leave rates unchanged next week.
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