EUR/USD Price Forecast: Needs To Take Out 1.1600 Decisively For Fresh Upside

• EUR/USD trades cautiously at around 1.1500 as the US Dollar clings to Monday’s gains.

• Investors await the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June.

• The ECB is highly expected to raise interest rates in the September meeting.

The Euro (EUR) trades with caution at around Monday’s low of 1.1500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair is expected to remain volatile as investors await key United States (US) economic release this week to get meaningful cues regarding the interest rate outlook.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Monday’s gains at around 100.00.

Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. The impact of the US official employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as the central bank has suspended delivering so called “forward guidance” on interest rates from the June policy meeting.

Later in the day, the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June is scheduled to be published at 14:00 GMT. US employers are expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.

On the Eurozone front, traders seem increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have said in a report that the ECB September hike pricing is around 90%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades cautiously at around 1.1500 at press time. The pair holds a modest bullish near-term bias as price advances above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1451, suggesting underlying demand after reclaiming that short-term trend reference.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.1 stays below overbought territory yet leans higher, hinting that buying pressure remains constructive while not stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the downward-sloping trend-line break level at 1.1555, which caps further gains and marks the next hurdle of 1.1600 for bulls; above that, the pair would extend its upside journey towards the May 29 high at 1.1686. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1451; a daily close back below this floor would weaken the current positive tone and expose the pair to the July 28 high at 1.1353.