EUR/USD Holds Below 1.1570 As US CPI Cools

Summary

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1541 on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, holding just below its 100-day Simple Moving Average, as per FXStreet.

• Softer-than-expected US July CPI capped the dollar's early strength; the US Dollar Index sat near 101.62.

• The 100-day SMA near 1.1568 is the immediate hurdle bulls must clear.

• Traders await follow-through from US producer prices and Fed commentary.

Key Reasons / Market Drivers

US inflation takes center stage

The dominant driver is the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 8:30 a.m. ET. CPI measures the change in prices paid by consumers and is a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Analysts surveyed by TradingKey expected headline inflation to ease toward 3.4% year-on-year from June's 3.5%, with core CPI, which excludes food and energy, slipping toward 2.5%. A softer print tends to weigh on the dollar because it reduces the case for higher US rates, giving the euro room to firm.

The dollar loses its early edge

FXStreet reported that the US Dollar Index erased intraday gains and traded roughly flat near 101.62 after the release. A weaker dollar generally supports EUR/USD, though the pair remained capped below its 100-day moving average as traders stayed cautious.

Fed path and eurozone resilience

Rate expectations are shifting. The CME FedWatch tool shows roughly a 60% chance the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% in September after a weak July jobs report. On the euro side, InteractiveCrypto noted relative eurozone resilience has helped the single currency hold up despite the stronger dollar earlier in the week.

Technical Indicators & Market Trend

Resistance: 1.1568 (100-day SMA), then 1.1629 (200-day SMA)

Support: 1.1471 (50-day SMA), then the 1.1400 psychological level.

Trend: EUR/USD is neutral-to-soft while trading below the 100-day SMA; a sustained break above 1.1568–1.1629 would open the door toward 1.1700, per.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, tempering expectations after a cooler inflation reading, said in July 2026 testimony:

"There might be some that look at this morning's data and say, 'mission accomplished.' That is not my view."

(Verbatim, via CBS News / Federal Reserve Board.)