China CPI slowed more than expected to 1.6% in September vs 1.8% expected and resulted in stock markets falling once again in Asia. CPI now slowed 3 straight months indicating a reduction in prices and a slowdown in the economy. AUD, CAD and NZD dropped versus the USD.
EURUSD reached a 3 week high at 1.1400 as currency traders continue to weigh whether the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at some point this year. Investors also continued to digest relatively hawkish comments from a host of central bankers over the weekend at the International Monetary Fund’s Annual Meeting in Lima, urging the Fed to stop putting off an initial rate hike.
GBPUSD dropped broadly after data showed that UK inflation turned negative again in September. GBPUSD had just hit 1.5388 earlier in the session yesterday but is trading over 150 pips lower.
GOLD increased its gains for a 3rd day in a row and broke the all significant resistance at 1170. “Gold is continuing to benefit from the weakness in U.S. dollar and safe-haven buying due to growing uncertainty about the direction of the stock markets.
Today’s main event is the US retail sales for September. Consensus is looking for a 0.3% m/m increase but there are some downside risks to that expectation.
Trading quote of the day:
It’s better to lose your opinion, than to lose your money
EURUSD
Pivot: 1.134
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.134 with targets @ 1.141 & 1.144 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.134 look for further downside with 1.1295 & 1.126 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.52
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.52 with targets @ 1.53 & 1.533 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.52 look for further downside with 1.517 & 1.5135 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.73
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.73 with targets @ 0.72 & 0.716 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.73 look for further upside with 0.7345 & 0.738 as targets.
Comment: As long as 0.73 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
USDJPY
Pivot: 119.9
Likely scenario: Short positions below 119.9 with targets @ 119.45 & 119.2 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 119.9 look for further upside with 120.1 & 120.35 as targets.
Comment: As long as 119.9 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.308
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.308 with targets @ 1.295 & 1.29 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.308 look for further upside with 1.312 & 1.317 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.965
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.965 with targets @ 0.955 & 0.952 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.965 look for further upside with 0.969 & 0.973 as targets.
Comment: As long as 0.965 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
GOLD
Pivot: 1164.5
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1164.5 with targets @ 1180 & 1185 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1164.5 look for further downside with 1158.3 & 1151.52 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Pivot: 47.85
Likely scenario: Short positions below 47.85 with targets @ 46.4 & 45.7 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 47.85 look for further upside with 48.46 & 49.15 as targets.
Comment: As long as 47.85 is resistance, likely decline to 46.4.
DAX
Pivot: 10800
Likely scenario : Long positions above 10800 with targets @ 11900 & 12390 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10800 look for further downside with 10450 & 10000 as targets.
Comment: The RSI calls for a rebound.
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