Estimates Of Q2 Chinese GDP

From BOFIT today:

From the analysis:

Official figures show the Chinese economy grew by 4.3 % y-o-y in the second quarter of this year (up 3.6 % q-o-q annually adjusted), missing China’s official 4.5–5 % target range for the year. Weak household demand and lower fixed investment reduced growth from 5 % y-o-y in the first quarter (up 5.3 % q-o-q). BOFIT’s alternative GDP calculations indicate Q2 growth slowed to 3.1 % y-o-y (3.2 % in 1Q). Our estimated alternative GDP growth rate band also widened considerably (1.2–4.7 %). The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook released earlier this month raised its Chinese GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6 %, and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1 % for 2027.

China CAT from the SF Fed which incorporates import data provides estimates only through Q4; it too suggests official above alternative estimates of GDP growth.