Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Little Change In November

On Friday morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 2.9 was a decrease of 1.1 from the previous month's 4.0. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 5.0.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.

Here is the opening paragraph from the report.

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index came in at 2.9, roughly in line with its level in October. New orders increased slightly, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter and inventories declined. Employment continued to expand, and the average workweek was slightly longer. Input price increases continued to slow, while selling prices increased modestly. Optimism about the six-month outlook remained subdued, while capital spending plans picked up markedly. [full report]

Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:

Empire State Manufacturing

Click this link to access a PDF set of charts of the individual components over the past 12 months.

Since this survey only goes back to July of 2001, we only have one complete business cycle with which to evaluate its usefulness as an indicator for the broader economy. Following the Great Recession, the index has slipped into contraction multiple times, as the general trend slowed. We saw a gradual decline in 2015 that picked up in 2016, with a decline starting in mid- to late-2018.

Here is an overlay of the current and future conditions (a six-month outlook).