Education And Health Services Is Now The Sole Driver Of Jobs

Time, Time Management, Stopwatch, Industry, Economy

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A recession-proof industry is the last industry standing.

ADP Month-Over-Month Change In Jobs by Minus Education and Health

Comments on the ADP Charts

As with the BLS, the sum of the parts does not equal the whole. So, the second chart is best views as an approximation of an approximation what’s happening.
I would like to see Education and Health Care as separate entities, but ADP keeps the same categories as the BLS.
Typically, when the last industry standing is recession proof, the economy is already in recession.

Massive ADP Revisions

With its January release, ADP had massive negative revisions dating all the way back to 2010. The revisions were based off QCEW, so data should be a better representation.

The BLS had a major revision a year ago, but the BLS standard data charts do not reflect those revisions.

I correct the BLS charts using what the BLS calls “experimental” data (that is undoubtedly better than their standard data).

The ADP revision may portend another huge BLS revision.

BLS vs ADP

The BLS delayed the January Jobs Report due Friday, February 6, to Wednesday February 11 due to the partial government shutdown.

Assuming no further delays, we will have better BLS to ADP comparisons then.

Just bear in mind, the BLS does not back adjust annual revisions. It should. ADP announced it will do that going forward.

Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 50,000 with 76,000 in Negative Revisions

On January 9, I noted Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 50,000 with 76,000 in Negative Revisions

The BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million, spread out over a number of years. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.

ADP just revised its data, month-by-month. The BLS didn’t and won’t. However, BLS “experimental” data does have the annual revisions.

Thus, on a historical basis, only the BLS experimental data is worth discussing.

We get to go through this again on Wednesday, with huge stacked revisions that also will not show up in BLS standard data.

Click above link for a chart that shows the current “experimental” data.