Economic Consequences Of Brexit:

I have been telling my students in the run up to the referendum that "we Brits can be stupid but we are not that stupid." In other words, I predict a win from the remain camp (my prediction is 55% remain 45% leave). There are a couple of reasons why I am optimistic the vote will be for remain.

Firstly, as the Wallstreet Journal polls of polls shows while vote leave has been generally improving in the polls the perception that a Brexit will do serious economic harm to the UK has risen from 29% early February to 37% in early June - so there is a bit of a contradiction there, suggesting that some leavers might change at the last minute. Why vote to lose income and potentially your job?

Secondly, with leave doing better in the last week or two or even slightly ahead alarm bells are now ringing in the Remain camp. So the Remain camp is now a lot more active in makingit's case and remain votes are much more likely to make sure they go out and vote REMAIN. Had remain kept a 3 to 4% lead all the time there might of been a danger of some remain voters failing to go out and vote, thinking a win was assured. But now I predict most remain voters are much more keen to vote.

The OECD has today shown the potential losses from a Brexit could be as much a £5,000 per household by 2030 in the most pessimistic scenario, that is, as high as over 7% of GDP. Even the optimistic scenario is -2.7% of GDP or £1,500 per household - worth thinking about! It's not just an economic case for voting remain, see my post.