DXY Price Struggling to Resume Bull Wave, Risk Sentiment Weighs

The DXY Dollar Index price stands at 92.25 below the weekly pivot point (92.27) when writing. It has gained a little even though the US economic figures have come in worse than expected earlier. Unfortunately, the DXY is still under pressure despite yesterday’s rally.

As you already know, the index has gained significantly after the US ISM Services PMI was published yesterday. However, DXY has found resistance and is going down as the Unemployment Claims dropped to 385K from 399K, but it has failed to reach the 382K estimate. Also, the US Trade Balance was reported at -75.7B versus -74.2B expected.

Tomorrow could be decisive for USD’s future. The Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate could shake the markets. In addition, the NFP is expected at 870K in July above 850K in June. Still, the worse than expected data for ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reported on Wednesday indicates the probability of a poor NFP report.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop from 5.9% to 5.7%. It remains to see how the markets will react after these high-impact data.

DXY price technical analysis: Do bulls have due strength to breakout?

(Click on image to enlarge)

DXY 4-hour price chart

The DXY has found resistance at the 23.6% retracement level and now traded back below the weekly pivot point (92.27). It could come back to test and retest the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml) before deciding its direction.

Technically, the Dollar Index has indicated that the corrective phase is over after failing to close below the 38.2% retracement level. Yesterday’s huge spike down signaled strong bullish pressure. Stabilizing above the median line (ml) could bring a further upside movement.

Making a new higher high, jumping, and closing above 92.35 today’s high could really signal further growth towards the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (UML). After that, DXY could move sideways between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels.

A valid breakout from this range could indicate the direction for the upcoming week. However, only an upside breakout above the upper median line (UML) could really signal a larger upwards movement and could invalidate a larger correction.