Durable Goods Revised Higher

Durable Goods Orders were revised higher with orders for the Machinery and Motor Vehicle series in decided uptrends. These data series no longer have multiple years of revisions. Commercial Aircraft continue to dominate the volatility as usual, but clear uptrends in manufacturing Machinery and Motor Vehicles/Parts continue and are in line with the implied impact of tariffs, Capacity uptrend, and Construction Employment.

Investors should continue to focus on industrials, which had a positive market psychology turn last few weeks as the PMI popped above 50. The trends in this data have been with us for most of the post-COVID period. That it has taken this long for institutional investors to awaken to the conclusion that we are in an economic expansion is recent.