Does the Future Scare You?

From handwashing to social gathering, our fundamental patterns of life have been permanently altered. Can you imagine going to a packed party with 50 friends and not being concerned about catching something? How about a packed restaurant, or a packed airplane?

Our world has changed. Even if we discover the perfect Wuhan Respiratory Syndrome cure tomorrow, our lives will never be as they were.

We will pay a price in economic dynamism. I've worked in a Cloud Company for nearly a decade. I am well aware of the trade off between the vitality of face-to-face collaboration and the flexibility of remote work. The most creative environments I've ever been have involved a group standing around a shared workspace (e.g. table) working through a problem and coming up with solutions. 

We are far from capturing that energy through Zoom (ZM).

Of course, the costs will go beyond the loss of face-to-face collaboration. Massive economic and political shifts may well follow. What were meant as an emergency measure - massive payments to businesses and individuals in need - could easily become the norm. Subsidies could replace economic activity. Onshoring could prop up inefficient producers of everything in every little country. Soft landings could make economic dynamism harder and harder to deliver. 

The most pernicious of all the changes may lay in the definition of 'essential.' This concept behind this simple word is written into the Marxist Maxim "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." 

There is a risk that these essential needs could well define the goods, services and freedoms we experience in the future. In the face of illness, or the risk of death (or the fear of climate change or ....) we could see those who engage in the 'non-essential' pilloried (or worse) for their excess. 

In the name of saving lives, reducing sickness, saving the earth or providing for the most needy among us (all worthy goals), religious services, protests, luxury products, travel, having 'extra' children and so much more could be permanently curtailed. The power of Facebook (FB) shaming could be given the force of government.

As those who focus on markets place their bets, the large economic shifts can be foretold: Tele-everything, online shopping, faster automation and so on. But these are only the most shallow of the effects we will see. Even as we press ahead with the fundamental shifts in the way our economy works, we must remain aware of the social costs of permanent joblessness, and of the loss of economic and social dynamism that comes from a permanent state of emergency.  

Of course the most important questions might be even more fundamental than the economic and social ones. As we wind our way through this catastrophe, we must remember that life is not just breathing and eating and watching Netflix (NFLX). There is something more to it. Something more fundamental.

Setting economic and social questions aside, I fear we are at grave risk of sacrificing our lives in the name of preserving them. 

It was in order to grapple with this question that I wrote "The Cost of Life", a Novellete set 13 years from now (which you can read here). 

What is the future you foresee? What are the changes that excite you? And what are the changes you dread? Please, share in the comments below.