The monthly Bankers Participation Report (BPR) reveals a nearly 23,000-contract reduction on the short side of the ledger during the last month. Most of this came from the non-U.S. banks. The bankers in general — and the U.S. bankers in particular — have continually diminished their involvement in the "Crimex" market. U.S. bankers are down to only 11% of open interest.
If there was a real financial press, this “curious development” ought to be a story to pursue. Indeed, the scant gold inventories in the "Crimex" warehouses being reported from JP Morgan may be more a reflection of a “clearing out of Dodge” view on the Comex and a lower involvement in futures market than anything else. It could be argued that JPM is much more interested in real physical gold and silver.
Despite the forensic evidence, who, other than perhaps me, even points this prospect out? One so-called “expert” with influence seems to suggest I was a “conspiracy theorist” for proposing instead that a crime syndicate patsy or whale was behind the great overshoot raid on gold.
The other aspect that stands out in the BPR and Commitment of Traders (CoT) report are the large bets the banksters and commercials have put on in favor of the commodity currencies. Case in point: the Canadian dollar: dealers longs have gone parabolic. The Aussie is similar. Second chart shows BPR on the Aussie dollar. Yes, I know some will say bankers don’t make positional bets, to which I say, “Really?”
The dealers are making bullish bets or hedges on the yen now. The euro doesn’t reveal much. Among the commodities, it is the monetary metals they really favor, not as much the commodities in general. There is still a production shutdown and credit-collapse phase ahead. It’s still a little early to get non-metal commodities and oil in the cross-hairs. If major events develop around late September-early October, we will probably see the logic of their positioning.
CoT: Canadian Dollar
BPR: Australian Dollar
In the CoT’s gold category, we see the dealers carrying their largest net-long position ever at 24,583. Curious indeed considering the steady stream of anti-gold propaganda emanating from the usual media suspects. The managed-money slingers didn’t do much this week. Instead, it was aggressive shorting from small speculators. In fact, small specs are net short a record 15,080 contracts. Managed money is net short 11,287.
CoT: Click to enlarge
CoT positions in silver have been largely unchanged over the last several weeks, with specs holding overly large, exposed short positions.
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