December Portfolio Analysis - Bullish March Higher

November and December were very bullish; it's tough to say when we may see a correction, but the market is getting overvalued.

First, here is the portfolio's VALUE BREAKDOWN, with:

1. Total Capital Invested (not including reinvested dividends);

2. Total Dividends Received; and

3. Capital Gain (from price appreciation)

 

I added $391.32 of raw capital to the portfolio on December as the market kept making new highs almost every day. Raw invested capital is $5,718.87

November and December were very bullish; it's tough to say when we may see a correction, but the market is getting overvalued. 

I will continue to buy fairly valued or undervalued stocks during January, while also building my cash position to at least 15-20% of my portfolio.

Either way, I'm satisfied with my performance. I have an annualized return over 28% by today (Jan. 2nd)! I don't expect this to be the norm however.

BUYS AND SELLS -

I sold my position in Ladder Capital (LADR) and New Residential (NRZ), as the dividend payout ratio for both companies have gotten higher recently and they may eventually become yield traps. I have to admit the yields really got to me when I first invested in them, and I had started positions in them at prices I eventually didn't feel too comfortable with.

So I sold both at technically breakeven, but the dividends throughout 2019 left me with a positive total return. One great thing to add is that I was able to sell both stocks after their ex-dividend dates, so I'll still receive their dividends later this January.

All my December buys were new additions to the portfolio:

McKesson (MCK)

LTC Properties (LTC)

J.M. Smuckers (SJM)

Etsy (ETSY)

Etsy, being a growth stock and relatively new IPO, does not pay a dividend.

BENCHMARKING against the S&P500 shows that I'm leading the index by 0.54%.

 

Let's take a look at the SECTOR distribution and performance in my portfolio. 

 

Healthcare is now​ my largest sector holding, from my buys of McKesson, the largest wholesale drugs distributor in the U.S.

The average performance of stocks based on their DIVIDEND STATUS:

 

The INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE of every stock in the Solid Dividend portfolio

 

I own 45 stocks currently after the moves made in December. I'm positive on 39 of them. Including my sold positions, I have a stock picking accuracy of 89%. Famed investor Peter Lynch once said that a 60% success rate is more than enough to beat the market in the long run

My best performing stock is KLA-Tencor (KLAC).

The SOLID DIVIDEND Snapshot (1/2/20

 

 

Annualized Return

As of Jan. 2, 2020, my portfolio has an annualized (or internal rate of) return of 28.53%, which accounts for the different time periods I invest capital. If I continue picking good businesses at appropriate valuations and I'm patient for moderate (or severe) market pullbacks, I expect an annualized return above market average, which on the long-term is 9.8%.

As an investor, I'm excited by what lies ahead!

Valuations of Current Holdings

The portfolio is about fairly valued, with still some undervalued stocks that I'm looking to add to in January, mainly:

Eastman Chemical (EMN),

Abbvie (ABBV),

McKesson (MCK),

JM Smuckers (SJM),

General Dynamics (GD), and

Broadcom (AVGO). 

Waterfall Char

 

Monthly Dividends Chart

 

Comments