Crude Oil Weekly Price Outlook: WTI Rally Fizzles Ahead Of Resistance

In this series, we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude Oil is on the defensive to start the week with price pulling back from six-week highs after a rally of more than 18.7% from the yearly/monthly open. While the threat of more near-term losses remains, the broader outlook remains constructive - here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.

CRUDE OIL WEEKLY PRICE CHART (WTI)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Notes: In our previous Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that prices had rebounded from a critical support confluence with the advance targeting initial pitchfork resistance around ~50.49. “A breach above the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place with such a scenario targeting the 200-week moving average at ~52.12 and the confluence resistance zone at 55.21/53.” Crude broke higher in the following days with the advance surpassing the 200-week moving average last week.

The rally failed just ahead of confluence resistance with prices poised to register an outside-daily reversal today in New York. The immediate threat is for further losses here, but the broader outlook remains constructive while above the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 46.91. Initial support rests at the median-line at ~48.32. Topside resistance objectives remain unchanged with a breach above 55.21/53needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting critical confluence resistance at the 50% retracement / 2018 open at 59.61-60.06.

Bottom line: The crude oil price advance remains vulnerable near-term while below 55.21/53. From a trading standpoint, looking for support on a larger pullback towards the median-line to offer more favorable long-entries with our broader focus weighted to the topside while above 46.91.

CRUDE OIL TRADER SENTIMENT

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +2.16 (68.4% of traders are long) – bearish reading
• Traders have remained net-long since October 11th; price has moved 26.7% lower since then
• Long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week
• Short positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 7.0% higher from last week
• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Crude Oil trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.