Crude Oil Update: It's Approaching Final Corrective Wave Before Bearish Trend Resumes

Crude oil has been moving nicely as expected since we posted the article on April 28. We have been tracking corrective price action ever since the spike to 119 at the beginning of March, where the market completed a strong impulsive decline in wave A, followed by a three-wave recovery into the 118.55 resistance area.

Even though we saw an aggressive decline from that high during the first half of April, the market managed to stabilize around the 82 support region, from where a new recovery leg started to develop. Because of that rebound, it now appears that crude oil is not yet ready for a direct and impulsive wave C selloff.

Instead, current price action suggests that the market has been unfolding a more complex corrective structure, with a triangle pattern now looking like the preferred scenario. This remains a bearish formation overall, but it also suggests that the correction may be nearing its final stages.

So far, the decline into the recent lows looks corrective as expected, which may represent wave D completion. That means crude oil could now be entering the final wave E recovery phase, with room for another push higher toward the 100–108 resistance area in the near term.

After this potential E-wave rally completes, we would continue to favor renewed downside pressure and a continuation of the broader bearish trend. Key support remains around the red trendline, and a decisive break below it could accelerate selling pressure toward the 87 gap area or even lower levels later on.