Crude Oil Prices Jumped Again Amid Escalation

The US stock indices ended Monday’s trading mostly lower amid a spike in oil prices, which intensified inflation risks and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve measures. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.70%. The S&P500 Index (US500) declined by 0.33%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed Monday in the green at 0.08%. Oil prices moved higher after a new exchange of strikes between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf region and reports of risks to shipping. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields rose across the curve, putting pressure on rate‑sensitive assets. Shares of major tech corporations declined notably: Alphabet fell 2.1%, Microsoft 1.2%, and Amazon 2.5%. The financial sector also closed mostly lower (Mastercard lost 1%, Goldman Sachs 0.8%). Nvidia shares rose by 1.4% after announcing a large $3.5 billion investment in MediaTek convertible bonds and expanding cooperation in artificial intelligence and infrastructure.

In Europe, by the end of Monday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.17%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.79%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) did not trade yesterday. The yield on 10‑year German Bunds rose to 3.3% (the highest since May 2011). French bond yields climbed to their highest since November 2008, Dutch yields reached a 15‑year high, and sovereign debt in Italy and Spain renewed two‑ and three‑year highs respectively. Pressure on the bond market came from the sharp rise in Brent oil prices, driven by the escalation of the Middle East conflict (a series of strikes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz), and hawkish rhetoric from global regulators. Investors are pricing in an ECB deposit rate of around 2.7% by December (with roughly an 80% probability of a second hike after the September step). Meanwhile, statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about the need to continue fighting inflation pushed market expectations for a September US rate hike to roughly 60%.

Crude oil prices (WTI) rose above $85 per barrel on Monday amid a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East, where the US and Iran resumed direct military exchanges for the first time in recent weeks. The catalyst for the price spike was US military action targeting Iranian missile installations on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz due to preparations to mine the waterway. The new wave of clashes heightened trader concerns about uninterrupted maritime transport. Despite Monday’s rise, oil prices are ending August with a monthly decline after July’s price rally.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose above $2.92 per MMBtu on Monday, hitting their highest levels in more than five weeks amid persistent hot‑weather predictions. Meteorological models indicate temperatures remaining above seasonal norms in the South, East, and East Coast of the US at least until mid‑September. This supports strong demand for air conditioning and active gas consumption by power plants.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.14%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed down 0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed Monday lower by 0.18%. Quotes fell amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the subsequent spike in Brent oil prices. The threat of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz intensified inflation fears and expectations of tighter monetary policy from global central banks. Market pressure occurred despite strong domestic data: the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rose in August to 51.5 points from 50.9 in July, indicating accelerating private‑sector growth.

The Australian dollar (AUD) remained below $0.72, staying near its highest levels since early June amid global uncertainty and local monetary expectations. The probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (to 4.60%) at the September 29 meeting jumped to 54% (compared to 10% a week earlier), and the probability of a further increase to 4.85% is estimated at 40%. The hawkish tone is supported by persistently high core inflation at 3.6%. Market attention is also focused on Wednesday’s Q2 GDP release, where quarterly growth of 0.3% is expected, with annual growth slowing to 1.8% from 2.5%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to around $0.59 on Tuesday, settling near two‑week lows amid global risk aversion. Investor sentiment deteriorated as global bond yields rose to multi‑year highs, driven by inflation concerns and expectations of a US Fed rate hike in September. The kiwi’s decline is limited by strong local expectations: on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

• S&P 500 (US500) 7,686.14 -25.62 (-0.33%)

• Dow Jones (US30) 53,185.90 -374.09 (-0.70%)

• DAX (DE40) 26,258.11 -311.88 (-1.17%)

• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,824.26 0 (0%)

• USD Index 99.41 -0.29 (-0.29%)

News feed for: 2026.09.01

• Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)

• Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)

• German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)

• Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)

• German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

• UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)

• Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

• Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

• US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

• Mexico Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)