Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Continues To Move On Headlines

Crude oil, of course, remains very noisy, and I would point out that it depends on the market you are trading on how things will look. Most grades of course look bullish at the moment, but what I am looking at here is the light sweet crude oil market, or some of you may have CFDs called US Oil, and it is a very sideways and range bound market sitting just below the crucial $100 level.

The $100 level of course is an area a lot of people will be watching from a psychological standpoint, but I also recognize that this is a market that if we do see oil really take off, the $100 level will be an area that a lot of people will be betting on resistance.

Geopolitics and Strategic Outlook

Keep in mind that when you look at Brent or UK Oil, it's a very different picture. It's got about a $20 premium and that's because the light sweet crude oil market is not as sensitive or held hostage, if you will, by the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, it's a completely different asset at this point.

Yes, there will be upward pressure on pricing, but I think a lot of that simply comes down to the idea that there will be more exports out of the United States. I think that's a reasonable assumption at this point and quite frankly that's been an ongoing thing anyway. I'm watching the $100 level; if we can clear $102, then I think we take off towards the upside. If we pull back from here, the $92 level or the 50% Fibonacci retracement move from the last spike higher could be an area of interest for support and then again at $85, which is right around the 61.8% Fib. I do not like shorting oil; I don't really have any interest in doing so at least until the war is over. So, buy on the dip is more likely than not the continued strategy here.