As we discussed on March 30, crude oil has been navigating a corrective structure, and recent price action confirms the bearish bias. Crude oil has now made a clear rejection from the upper side of the corrective channel, suggesting that the bearish sequence is resuming into wave C on a potential US–Iran ceasefire plan.
Price is approaching the lower boundary of the channel near 93, and a decisive break below this level would further confirm downside continuation. This indicates that the three-wave move in wave B is likely complete, and a stronger decline could follow.
Looking at the broader Elliott Wave structure from the March highs, there appears to be room for a deeper move lower, potentially toward the 70 area.
A downward move in crude oil could provide support to other markets, particularly equities, while potentially slowing the US dollar.
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