The stock market appears to be heavily betting on vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). However, I took a look at the websites for both vaccines.
All I see is the above 90 percent effectiveness for both. I see nothing stating how long the protection will last. This is a huge problem. Dr. Fauci raised a red flag by stating that the vaccine may not put an end to the pandemic. The CDC has affirmed this is not an easy fix, although reinfection is not frequent for a short duration. The long term may prove to be another story. Staying power of the vaccines to ward off reinfection could be crucial to the eradication of the COVID-19 virus.
Perhaps a combination of vaccines, masks, and lockdowns could significantly slow the virus. But human compliance is necessary on all fronts. In other nations, lockdowns come with money from the government to aid business and workers. As long as Mitch McConnell is in charge, the best we could hope for is hit and miss with the aid.
But we cannot even get politicians to wear masks. And we know that some people can get the virus multiple times. Other diseases like Sars gave antibody protection for long periods. This COVID-19 Coronavirus does not, as those getting sick have protection for only 90 days.
The stock market is betting on eradication. Vaccine news generally pushes stocks up. We all want an end to the virus. We are getting tired, but we have to maintain vigilance in order to slow the explosion of disease.
Some doctors are giving up on quarantine. I have a friend in a northern Nevada city who was not given a note from her doctor even though she was positive and ill. Giving up on quarantine/isolation when the antibodies don't last is insanity.
Spanish Flu
The problem with the Spanish Flu pandemic 100 years ago is that wartime travel spread the disease. People were tired of the Spanish Flu.
The Anti-mask Society sprung up. The second wave hit. People had stopped the quarantines and stopped wearing masks. Many died.
A third wave was deadly but came back to the USA from Australia. Woodrow Wilson got it. And he attempted to hide it. 50 million people worldwide died from the Spanish flu virus. Lack of quarantine/isolation was crucial to the spread of the disease. Some leaders who knew the dangers minimized them, creating an even larger pandemic. Sound familiar?
Restaurants and Travel Now
With the current pandemic, airline and cruise ship travel spread the virus, in addition to eating in restaurants and engaging bars and gyms.
So, until this virus lifts, it is reckless to eat in restaurants. This does not mean restaurants cannot serve takeout as long as they are safe in their preparation. Hot food is safest.
Below is a list of websites that relate to this very sobering subject. People will still spend money. At home, stocks are doing well. Return to normal stocks are speculative, perhaps more speculative than investors think.
The billion or maybe trillion-dollar question remains: Will vaccines eradicate the Coronavirus? The answer is not clear cut.
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