A year ago, analysts were debating how large the next surplus might be. Mine production was set to outpace demand and inventories looked manageable. Now those forecasts are being torn up.
The International Copper Study Group reversed its previous call for a surplus. It now expects a 150,000-metric-ton copper deficit in 2026. It’s not the only big name that’s tempered its expectations for Doctor Copper. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) forecasts a 330,000-ton shortfall, while Morgan Stanley (MS) believes the deficit could reach 600,000 tonnes — the largest in more than 20 years.
As for COPX, it has an expense ratio of 0.65% and holds a global basket of miners. They include Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), BHP Group Ltd. (BHP), Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO), and Zijin (ZIJMF).
A look at a recent chart shows COPX is bumping along at the bottom of its recent range. As fundamentals overwhelm the paper traders, I expect COPX to go much higher.
Wall Street has spent years pushing the expected copper shortage further into the future. The latest forecasts suggest the wait may be over.
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