In this Elliott Wave update, we examine the long-term structure in ConocoPhillips (COP). The stock continues to display a strong impulsive structure from the March 2020 low, while the April 2025 low created another important bullish nest within that larger sequence.
More recently, $COP completed another 5-wave advance from the April 2025 low and has started a corrective pullback. Once this correction runs its course, the combination of the two bullish nests should support another significant advance, with the $197–$270 area becoming the next major upside objective over the next few quarters.
$COP Started a New Bullish Cycle From March 2020
Looking at the weekly chart, $COP established an important long-term low in March 2020 and started a new bullish cycle.
From that low, the stock advanced in an impulsive Elliott Wave structure. An initial wave ((1)) rally was followed by a corrective wave ((2)) pullback before buyers returned.
COP then accelerated higher through waves (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5), eventually completing a larger bullish cycle. This impulsive behavior confirmed that the dominant trend had shifted higher from the March 2020 low.
First Bullish Nest Developed From the 2020 Low
The initial advance and pullback following the March 2020 bottom created the first important wave 1–2 nest.
From there, $COP produced a powerful extension higher as the larger third-wave structure developed. This is characteristic of bullish nesting, where one wave 1–2 sequence creates the foundation for a much stronger advance.
The subsequent price action continued to respect that larger bullish structure despite several substantial corrections along the way.
April 2025 Low Created the Second Nest
After completing the previous bullish cycle, $COP entered a larger corrective phase. That correction unfolded through a complex structure and eventually reached an important low in April 2025.
The April 2025 low completed wave II and established another major wave 1–2 relationship within the bullish cycle from 2020.
Consequently, $COP now displays a double-nest structure from the March 2020 and April 2025 lows.
This setup becomes particularly important because multiple nested wave 1–2 structures can lead to significant upside acceleration once the corrections finish.
Five Waves Up From April 2025 Have Completed
Following the April 2025 low, $COP turned sharply higher and developed another clear 5-wave impulsive advance.
Waves (1) through (5) carried the stock to a new cycle high and completed wave ((1)). Therefore, another corrective phase is now expected before the larger bullish sequence resumes.
The current pullback is being viewed as wave ((2)) and should unfold as a corrective A-B-C structure.
Importantly, this decline should not be confused with the end of the larger bullish trend. Instead, it represents another opportunity for the market to reset before the next impulsive leg begins.
Wave ((2)) Pullback Can Complete the Latest Nest
The current correction can continue to develop through waves (A), (B), and (C).
Once wave (C) completes, $COP should establish another important low in wave ((2)). That would leave the stock positioned for the next bullish expansion.
At that point, several degrees of bullish wave structure would become aligned. Therefore, the next rally could carry considerably stronger momentum than the preceding advance.
This is the main reason the current pullback remains important: it can complete the latest nest before the larger acceleration phase begins.
Double Nest Supports Rally Toward $197–$270
Once the wave ((2)) correction ends, the larger Elliott Wave structure favors another significant advance.
The next major upside area comes between $197 and $270. This represents the larger target zone for the developing bullish sequence and can be reached over the next few quarters as the nested structure begins to accelerate.
$COP does not need to move toward these targets in a straight line. Smaller-degree five-wave advances and corrective pullbacks should continue to develop along the way.
However, as long as those corrections remain supported, the broader sequence should continue pointing higher.
Why the Double Nest Matters
The combination of the March 2020 low and April 2025 low creates an important long-term Elliott Wave setup.
The March 2020 low started the primary bullish cycle, while the April 2025 correction created another higher-degree bullish nest. More recently, five waves higher from April 2025 have provided additional evidence that the larger trend remains impulsive.
Once the current wave ((2)) correction finishes, $COP can enter the stronger portion of this nested sequence.
Therefore, the next few quarters could become increasingly important as the market begins working toward the $197–$270 region.
Technical Summary
To summarize, $COP continues to show an impulsive bullish structure from the March 2020 low.
The first bullish nest developed from the 2020 bottom, while the April 2025 low created a second major nest. From April 2025, $COP completed another 5-wave impulse in wave ((1)) and is now correcting that advance in wave ((2)).
Once the current A-B-C pullback completes, the double-nest structure should support the next major bullish leg.
As long as $COP remains above the broader 79.88 invalidation level, the right side continues to favor higher prices, with the larger sequence targeting the $197–$270 area over the next few quarters.
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