Consumer Price Index: November Headline At 6.81%, Highest Rise In Decades

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.81%, up from 6.22% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 4.93%, up from 4.56% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad increases in most component indexes, similar to last month. The indexes for gasoline, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the larger contributors. The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November as the gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.7 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.8 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November following a 0.6-percent increase in October. Along with shelter, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, and airline fares were among those that increased. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, recreation, and communication all declined in November.

The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index rose 33.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.1 percent. These changes are the largest 12-month increases in at least 13 years in the respective series. Read more

Investing.com was looking for a 0.7% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 6.8% for Headline and 4.9% for Core.

The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.

(Click on image to enlarge)

In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.

Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is now at the PCE target range of 2 percent.