The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through May 14. The 83.0 reading matched the forecast of Investing.com and was 1.3 above the April 81.7 (a downward revision from 82.3). This measure of confidence has risen from its interim low of 72.0 in November of last year and is the second highest (behind the March 83.9) since the end of the Financial Crisis.
Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer confidence improved slightly in May, as consumers assessed current conditions, in particular the labor market, more favorably. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy, jobs, and personal finances were also more upbeat. In fact, the percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to grow over the next six months is the highest since December 2007 (20.2 percent). Thus, despite last month’s decline, consumers’ confidence appears to be growing.”
Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved in May. Those stating business conditions are “good” decreased to 21.1 percent from 22.2 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” declined to 24.1 percent from 24.8 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” rose to 14.1 percent from 13.0 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased slightly to 32.3 percent from 32.8 percent.
Consumers’ expectations increased slightly in May. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months edged up to 17.5 percent from 17.2 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased marginally to 10.2 percent from 10.5 percent.
Consumers were more positive about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 15.4 percent from 14.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged up to 18.3 percent from 18.0 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to grow increased to 18.3 percent from 16.8 percent, but those expecting a drop in their incomes also increased, to 14.5 percent from 12.9 percent.
Putting the Latest Number in Context
Let's take a step back and put Lynn Franco's interpretation in a larger perspective. The table here shows the average consumer confidence levels for each of the five recessions during the history of this monthly data series, which dates from June 1977. The latest number has moved 13.6 points above the recession mindset but remains 11.3 points below the non-recession average.
The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end I have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The exponential regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope clearly resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference. Today's reading of 83.0 is now above the current regression point of 78.2.
On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 35.6 percentile of all the monthly readings since the start of the monthly data series in June 1977 and at the 31.3 percentile of non-recessionary months.
For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see my post on the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.
And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis.
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