The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through April 17. The 82.3 reading was below the 83.0 forecast of Investing.com and 1.6 below the March 83.9 (previously reported at 82.3). Despite the slippage, this measure of confidence has risen from its interim low of 72.0 in November and is the second highest since the end of the Financial Crisis.
Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.
"Consumer confidence declined slightly in April, as consumers assessed current business and labor market conditions less favorably than in March," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "However, their expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market held steady. Thus, while sentiment regarding current conditions may have slipped a bit, consumers do not foresee the economy, or the labor market, losing the momentum that has been building up over the past several months."
Consumers' appraisal of current conditions pulled back moderately in April. Those claiming business conditions are "good" edged down to 21.8 percent from 22.6 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "bad" rose to 24.4 percent from 23.5 percent. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also slightly more negative. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" declined to 12.9 percent from 13.8 percent, while those saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 32.5 percent from 31.4 percent.
Consumers' expectations held steady in April. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months was unchanged at 17.4 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen increased marginally to 10.3 percent from 10.1 percent. Consumers were slightly more optimistic about the outlook for the labor market. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 15.0 percent from 14.1 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs edged up to 17.9 percent from 17.5 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating their incomes to grow increased to 17.1 percent from 15.3 percent, but those expecting a drop in their incomes also increased, to 12.9 percent from 11.5 percent.
Putting the Latest Number in Context
Let's take a step back and put Lynn Franco's interpretation in a larger perspective. The table here shows the average consumer confidence levels for each of the five recessions during the history of this monthly data series, which dates from June 1977. The latest number has moved 12.9 points above the recession mindset but remains 12.0 points below the non-recession average.
The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end I have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The exponential regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope clearly resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference. Today's reading of 82.3 is now above the current regression point of 78.2.
On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 35.2 percentile of all the monthly readings since the start of the monthly data series in June 1977 and at the 30.9 percentile of non-recessionary months.
For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see my post on the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.
And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis.
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