Consensus Vs. ARIMA (1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm Payroll

Image Source: Pixabay
 

Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release.
 

Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1) forecast (red), +/- 1 std error (gray), Bloomberg consensus of 12/2 (light blue square), all s.a. ARIMA estimated over 2022-2025M10 data. Source: ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

What does this imply for the BLS private NFP measure (implied preliminary benchmark)? Pretty flat movement in October and November…
 

Figure 2: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), Bloomberg consensus of 12/2 (light blue square), BLS private nonfarm payroll employment (brown), all s.a. Source: ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

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