Coinbase (COIN) has staged a notable recovery from the 141 low, but the structure of the advance suggests caution is still warranted. The move higher appears to be unfolding in three waves, which is typically characteristic of a corrective rally rather than the start of a new bullish trend.
This interpretation is supported by the preceding decline from the 400 area, which was strong, impulsive, and extended, traits commonly associated with a third-wave decline in Elliott Wave theory. As such, the current recovery may represent a wave four correction within a larger bearish sequence rather than a lasting trend reversal.
The stock has also been testing an important resistance zone between 210 and 250. While price remains within this area, the risk of another bearish turn remains elevated. More recently, Coinbase has broken below the lower trendline support near the 180 level, increasing the probability that wave five lower is now underway.
From a bullish perspective, it is still too early to declare the downtrend complete. A break above 291 would be needed to invalidate the current bearish wave count, as wave four should not overlap with wave one territory. Such a move would signal that the broader bearish trend is likely over and would shift the focus toward buying opportunities on future pullbacks.
Highlights
Current rally appears corrective and is unfolding in three waves.
Key resistance zone between 210 and 250 remains important.
Break below 180 signals increased risk of bearish continuation.
A move above 291 would provide stronger bullish confirmation.
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