Cobalt

My last post put Cobalt into a general value area. Now let's look at the supply/demand. This is tricky since it depends on a forecast of electric vehicle demand. Here's my best estimate. Just remember that this is subject to wide ranges.

'000 tonnes of refined metal equivalent
 

So there's about 24 K tonnes that has to be satisfied by new mines or additional recycling that have not yet been committed. I think that this can be done without a major price rise. OTOH, it's hard to see the price go down much unless there is a change in the EV outlook. If it did, the necessary new supply would evaporate.

My best guess is that Cobalt will move in a wide band for the next few years, with no major bull or bear market. We are probably near the bottom of the range.