If the Fed gets in 4 hikes this year, I would expect the curve to invert sooner. CME Fedwatch shows a nearly 50% chance of at least four hikes.
Deutsche Bank research suggests the yield curve will invert in 2019. I suggest sooner if the Fed hikes 4 times.
The inversion chart came in a Tweet. I do not have a link to the analysis.
If the Fed gets in 4 hikes this year, I would expect the curve to invert sooner. CME Fedwatch shows a nearly 50% chance of at least four hikes.
It's also possible the economy falls to pieces and the next move is a cut. Under that scenario, inversion may be a long time coming.
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