Circle’s USDC Earnings Are Really A Bet On US Interest Rates

Ninety-five per cent of revenue from one variable

Circle Internet Group's (CRCL) second-quarter 2026 earnings read less like a payments company’s statement and more like an open position on the US rate curve. As Crypto Briefing first reported, USDC (USDC-X) moved $14.8 trillion of on-chain volume in the quarter, yet about 95% of Circle’s $701.3 million in total revenue and reserve income, roughly $667.7 million, was interest earned on the reserves backing the stablecoin, which sit mostly in US Treasuries and cash equivalents.

That leaves $5.3 million of transaction revenue against $14.8 trillion of volume, and yields on the reserves at roughly 3.5%. For a desk that trades rate expectations, the shape is familiar: a growing balance sheet, funded in dollars, monetised almost entirely through interest.

The rate math

The income line divides into two moving parts: the yield on the reserves and the size of those reserves. USDC in circulation stood at $73.3 billion at 30 June 2026, up 19% year over year, and it is that growth in circulation that kept reserve income rising through the quarter even as yields fell toward 3.5%. A lower policy path that trims the reserve yield by a full percentage point, on a similar balance, is a double-digit share of the quarter’s entire revenue base gone. Growing circulation fast enough to offset each cut is the whole business case.

The structure also cuts the other way. If circulation growth stalls, the model has no second engine waiting in reserve, so to speak. Net income for the quarter was $48 million with adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, up 8%, on revenue growth of just 7% year over year, a reminder that the interest line is doing nearly all the work.

Where a second engine might come from

The company’s answer is the Circle Payments Network, which the disclosure put at $14.7 billion in annualised volume across 175 institutions, up 76% quarter over quarter. Cross-border payments revenue is the obvious hedge against a fee-light settlement base, but at that scale it remains small against the Treasury interest line.

Circle has also secured approvals tied to its Circle National Trust and New York Trust charters, which positions it with institutions that need a chartered counterparty before committing balances. For the trade’s purposes, the shares to watch are the same ones the bond desk watches: every 25 basis points off the short end is revenue that nothing in USDC’s transaction volume replaces. Circle released these Q2 2026 figures in early August 2026.