Chopping Is Not Topping

The market has ground sideways for weeks. The crash callers think they finally caught the top.

Every YouTube short in my feed is promising a 50% collapse. That noise always gets loudest right as a cycle runs out of time.

Here is what you will walk away with.

You will see the exact zone where I expect this low, which sector I expect to lead the next rally, and why falling oil and falling rates set the table for it.

Let me show you why this grind is a gift.

A Correction Through Time

We are 15 weeks into the rally from March. It’s mature, no doubt, but at the same time, the window for a low is open right now.

Prices have not collapsed. his is a correction through time. The tape is resting after a long run.

Sideways chop drains the energy out of an overheated market. That energy has to rebuild before prices can push to the next high.

Read this as patience. The signal shifted. I shifted with it.

We ran this exact play in the first quarter. We started buying Dell (DELL) before the market even bottomed. The best entries showed up while everyone else was still panicking.

I am sitting on more than 30% cash right now. I closed my weakest positions and raised that pile on purpose. That cash is ammunition for the low.

Here is the downside map I am watching for the bottom:

• S&P 500: the 7,300 to 7,400 zone is my bottom candidate, roughly 3.5% below current levels near 7,575.

• Nasdaq: I am watching 28,300 to 28,800, about 500 to 1,000 points lower.

• Dow: 51,500 to 52,000, after it printed a fresh all-time high last week.

I expect this low to land by the end of the month. The first week of August is my outer limit. This would be the best buying opportunity since March.

Tech Gets Its Turn Again

Semiconductors just broke key support. They are leading this pullback lower.

The crowd is already souring on chips. The same feed screaming “crash” is now screaming that AI is going bust.

That sentiment shift is the tell. The panic has to scare people out of tech before the next leg can begin.

Technology and semiconductors lead the charge out of every major bottom. I expect tech to grab leadership the week of the low or the week right after.

The Trinity Terminal is already flagging names that carved out bottoms ahead of the indices. I sold Nvidia (NVDA) yesterday and booked the gain. I expect it to bottom and set up again, with a path back toward 230.

Microsoft (MSFT) looks like it has already put in its low. That kind of strength ahead of the index bottom marks a future leader.

Falling Oil, Falling Rates

Crude oil just printed a lower high into former support turned resistance. I expect another leg down in energy.

Falling energy prices take pressure off inflation. The latest data is already pointing that way. Cooling inflation clears the runway for interest rates to come down hard.

You can already see it in the tape. Real estate is catching a bid. That is a classic low-rate signal.

Tech runs on low rates. Cheaper money lifts the highest-growth names first.

Lower oil, lower rates, and a washed-out chip trade all point the same direction. They line up behind the next rally.

If we bottom by the week of July 27th, that opens 8 to 10 weeks of upside. That points to a run into early October.

This is the moment to be locked in. One good quarter can change your entire year.