The very beginning of a new intermediate cycle is the single most dangerous time to short stocks. The average gain is 6-8% in the first 12-18 days. Yet this is the time most retail traders want to sell short as they expect the market to turn back down immediately. When it fails to do so they end up losing money.
Even in a bear market (which we are not in), a new intermediate cycle will almost always rally at least 6-8 weeks before topping. The current cycle is only on day 6 – a long cry from 6-8 weeks.
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