We started off the day with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Mester Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front and harvest season, 2020 is not done with farmers yet as forecast for an early frost to begin as early as Thursday. As the Fahrenheit drops this week at the moment so are prices ahead of the USDA forecasts today. Funds remain net long but only a fraction of what they were last Monday. Chinese holidays this week has investors expecting them to be on the sidelines, so we can see purchases cut this week. Later this week the USDA will update us their new estimates for harvest. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 362 ¾ which is 2 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 365 ¾ to 362 ¼.
On the Ethanol front, the market is feeling the lull of shoulder season already, with blending down from last year, with continued lower production while stocks stay in the positive zone. We will get more news on corn for ethanol use on October 9th. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The November contract settled at 1.290 and is currently showing 2 bids @ 1.250 and 0 offers with Open Interest at 40 contracts.
On the Crude Oil Font OILPRICE.com’s Tsvetana Paraskova reports that Iran has significantly boosted oil exports to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) which is the highest level of Iranian exports in a year and doubled those in August, since the U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and exports in May 2018. The Islamic Republic has been using various tactics to ship crude abroad without being detected, including tankers switching off transponders and documents stating the oil did not originate from Iran. While Iranian Oil Minister Bijun Zanganeh last week said. “America has waged a war with Iran with no blood,” referring to sanctions on Iran oil. Iran’s continued defiance of U.S. sanctions skirting official trackers, we estimate China has been a huge buyer of Iranian oil, while still buying U.S. oil. But the U.S. figures seem well below of what the shipments truly are. In the overnight electronic session, the November crude oil is currently trading at 4051 which is 26 points higher. The trading range has been 4058 to 3978.
On the Natural Gas Front, the October contract expires today. Even with today’s lower start traders expect prices to trend higher with lower domestic production, higher demand in the winter, recovering global gas prices in Europe and Asia-America’s key export destinations for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The coming winter and closing in on the end of an active hurricane season that has disrupted LNG operations and exports along the U.S. Gulf Coast, coupled with recovering gas demand in Asia and Europe which could send natural gas prices above $3 per million British thermal units. In the overnight electronic session, the November natural gas is currently trading at 2.730 which is .077 lower. The trading range has been 2.823 to 2.704.
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